Daily Market Review 18 of December
OVERVIEW

Recently analysts expressed a few radical ideas about the nature of the crises. They state that the slowdown of the growth in developed countries is the result not only of financial crises. Basically they claim that the weakness of the countries reflects long stagnation of technologies and innovations. Because of that reason the stable growth of productivity is not possible without radical changes in innovative policy. Of course the main reason for recent recession is a global credit downfall. The symptoms of the crisis are seen on all figures: from the level of unemployment to the prices on real estate and debt growth. It’s not surprising that the current situation looks as if in the past there were tens of deep financial crises. In conditions when countries in a difficult financial state postpone urgent infrastructural projects the midterm growth also suffers. Regardless of technological trends other long term trends like population aging also negatively affect the growth. Even without crisis the countries  had to undertake some unpopular measures in pension system and health care.  Eventually most of the plans to overcome the crisis imply that the technical progress will provide the base for productivity growth which as a result will support the stable recovery. The perspectives are quite gloomy if the sector stops growing. It’s quite possible that the reason of the last slump is in both sectors: innovative and financial. Anyway the economic result reflects first of all the financial recession though further steps should address also other obstacles on the way of the long term growth.

CURRENCIES

EUR/USD

The Euro depreciated against the US Dollar from 1.3186 to 1.3143 with further bounce to 1.3162.  The boundary above is 1.3220. The sudden stop on reaching the maximum of 1.3186 is a negative factor for further growth of the Euro.  Euro is trading now in a quite narrow range and it might need some pause before the growth (if occurs) will resume.