Daily Market Review 1 of Fabruary

Retail sales in Germany depreciated by 1.7% (the biggest dip since June 2011). At the same time the unemployment rate continued to reduce and went down to 6.8%. So the amount of unemployed significantly dropped, though otherwise anticipated.  The German minister of economy emphasized an improvement of the situation in 2012. The labor market of Germany was stronger in the second half o the year and now is in a relatively good condition. Also a German representative mentioned the presence of all signs of economy improvement. Consumer spending in France didn’t change (the growth of 0.3% expected), manufacturers’ prices continue to go down against the forecast of a dip just of 0.1%. American statistics on new claims for relief receiving ceased to surprise anyone and got back to former figures (368 K). PMI Chicago grew up to the level of 55.6. The IMF continued to specify a favorable impact of the possibility to reconsider the terms of Russian loan granted in 2011. S&P confirmed yesterday the rating of the ECB at the level of “ААА”. The forecast is stable and the long term rating was verified at “A-1” with a stable forecast as well. Today in the morning the Japanese data on unemployment and households’ spending demonstrated negative dynamics. Chinese PMI for manufacturing lost 0.2 points (while the forecast suggested growth by 0.4-0.5 points). Other than Non-Farm Employment change there is an essential ISM manufacturing PMI report.


As expected, yesterday’s session ended with a rejection of the US Dollar by many investors. They might stop investing in the US Dollar for a while and get back to other currencies.


The Euro yesterday appreciated by the end of trading session in spite of some negative trend in the morning. Overall the week was good for the Euro. Analysts assume a strong resistance at the crucial level of 1.3700. We have to see whether Euro will be able to cope with a challenge. Nevertheless most analysts are skeptical about further growth perspectives in the midterm. So the market is getting ready for a decline.


The Pound continued to recover and closed not far from the anticipated level of 1.5850. Still analysts don’t believe in the strength of recent trend.  There is a resistance near 1.5900. If it withholds, it will be a signal for the end of this short recovery and a continuation of the Pound depreciation.